Is The World Running out of Oil ?

When demand is bigger than supply, the price increase. But is it that simple to describe the phenomenon of oil price in the last year ?

Read on this interesting article.

However, bigger question lies. Is the world really running out of oil ?

FACTBOX: Why oil prices are at a record high
Wed Feb 27, 2008 4:31am EST(Reuters) - U.S. crude oil hit an all-time high of $101.89 a barrel on February 27, closing in on an inflation-adjusted peak of $102.53 seen in 1980.Robust demand for crude, real and threatened disruptions to supply and a weak U.S. dollar have fuelled the rally from a dip below $50 at the start of 2007.

FUNDS - Investment flows from pension and hedge funds into commodities including oil have boomed, as has speculative trading.At the same time, a global credit crunch has brought some other markets, such as the U.S. asset-backed commercial paper market, to a virtual standstill.Some of that money has found its way into energy and commodities, analysts say.

DOLLAR WEAKNESS - The fall in the value of the dollar against other major currencies has helped drive buying across commodities as investors view dollar assets as relatively cheap.It has also reduced the purchasing power of OPEC's revenues and increased the purchasing power of some non-dollar consumers.OPEC oil ministers have noted that although prices are rising to record nominal levels, inflation and the dollar have softened the impact.Some analysts say investors have been using oil as a hedge against the weaker dollar.

DEMAND - While previous price spikes have been triggered by supply disruptions, demand is a main driver of the current rally.Global demand growth has slowed after a surge in 2004 but is still rising, despite an economic slowdown in top consumer the United States. Higher prices have so far had a limited effect on economic growth.Analysts say the world is coping with high nominal prices because, adjusted for exchange rates and inflation, they are lower than during previous price spikes and some economies have become less energy intensive.

OPEC SUPPLY RESTRAINT - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, source of more than a third of the world's oil, started to reduce oil output in late 2006 to stem a fall in prices.Fewer OPEC barrels entering the market helped propel the rally and consumer nations led by the International Energy Agency have urged OPEC to pump more oil.At meetings in December and earlier in February, OPEC left output unchanged. Some in OPEC, such as Iran, want the group to cut supplies at the next OPEC meeting, on March 5.

VENEZUELA - A row between OPEC member Venezuela and Exxon Mobil Corp., the largest fully publicly traded oil company, has prompted price gains this month.Venezuela has suspended oil exports to Exxon, escalating the country's fight with the U.S. oil firm over compensation for an nationalized oil project. Venezuela has also threatened to cut exports to the United States.Oil producers in the Middle East have assured the United States that they could compensate for a supply disruption if Venezuela slows exports.

NIGERIA - Supply of crude from Nigeria, Africa's largest oil exporter, has been cut since February 2006 because of militant attacks on the country's oil industry.Oil companies have detailed about 515,000 bpd of shut Nigerian production due to militant attacks and sabotage.

REFINERY BOTTLENECKS - Limited additions to refining capacity in major consumer nations such as the United States are partly behind rising crude prices.The International Energy Agency said last year additional global refining capacity over the next five years will lag earlier expectations as rising costs and a shortage of engineers delay construction.

IRAQ - Iraq is struggling to get its oil industry back on its feet after decades of wars, sanctions and underinvestment.Exports of Kirkuk crude from the country's north are stabilizing as the system recovers from technical problems that had mostly idled the pipeline since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003.

Serendipity

Do you believe in coincidences ?

In real life I have met several coincidences - the last one is pretty strange: the previous owner of my car turns out to be my cousins ! The story started when I bought a car several years ago from a man - just call him Andi - and now I need to find him to ask for his ID to extend the car's registration license (STNK). I tried to call his office, handphones, homes - all end up with no luck. Then one day I attended a wedding reception of my cousins, and there I met Andi, who turns out to be the cousin of my cousin's wife!!

But what about love ? Some people are trying hard to find their soul mate, and others - probably - rely on serendipity. A nice coincidences - which for me is more like destiny rather than luck. All the old and new theories can claim that mating in human is the act of preserving blood line - heredity. That man tend to seek certain qualifications from women and vice versa, and those qualifications are merely physical - like the lower waist ratio to hip, the broad shoulder - all traits that shows a good chance of producing a good offspring. Other theory says the mating is natural instinct and thus use sense - where a certain sense of male/female body is attractive to certain male/femail, and not to others. That this sense is what's created chemistry - the reaction when two people falling in love.

All of that theories and some people stilll have difficulty in finding their mate. Is there something that people forget ?

For me the answer is God's will. God plays important role in all of this. Serendipity - is not merely a luck or coincidence.

Dolphin Mall - Miami

Believe it or not !

I read about this mall in Republika news paper in January, and I wonder how it feels to be there - and in March here I was in the middle of the mall!

It was an outlet type of mall where you can find original stuff like Nike, Reebok, Guess with cut prices. I shop like crazy....In the end, I was broke considering I have no pocket money for this overseas assignment.

Ah yang penting happy kan...dan belanjanya kan sebagian besar buat oleh2 (alasan....)

IFC Mall Hongkong

While waiting for The Peak to open, I stroll around the IFC mall, which does not look much different from our Senayan City....

The only different is you can find Ben & Jerry Ice Cream here !

Madame Tussaud - Hongkong, March 2007

On the way back from Miami, I stopped over in Hongkong and use the extra 8 hours I have to explore the famous "The Peak". Alone, I took the bus to get to the tram terminal and then by tram hike an (almost) 45 degree slope to get to the peak. There's Madame Tussaud Museum at the Peak. Here I am with several of the really famous "people."

Ah... if only I bring my swimsuit. It was 11 degree celcius during the day and 6 degrees in the night. Although the sun shine, but the wind was very cold. I almost wear my jacket in the beach !

This is the famous Miami Beach where they shoot the Miami Vice !

The background is my hotel, if you see carefully, the architecture in Miami is art-deco. All of the cities are full of this kind of buildings, feels like you're in the year of 70's. One night we took a ride to the site where Giannini Versace was shot to death - the house was sold to someone else and is closed for public, but we can take a picture in front of it.

This is the Loews Hotel where we have the 3 days SDDN conference.

It is very posh - have its own private beach and located in the high end area where the boutiques along the street displays outrageous pricey stuffs.

I prefer to go to the famous Dolphin Outlet Mall where you can find original Levi's 501 jeans for $ 30!

Miami

Just arrived at Miami Airport after 24 hours flying from Jakarta-Hongkong-LA.